Galaxy Securities: Domestic policies may continue to increase, and metal prices are expected to go up. china galaxy Securities said that on the demand side, the domestic package of economic incremental policies played a significant role. In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.30%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the expansion pace was slightly accelerated. The domestic central economic work conference is just around the corner, and it is expected to put forward more positive incremental policy instructions for the economy next year, continue to raise the expectation of macro-recovery, and benefit the rise of copper prices. In addition, the new non-agricultural data in November in the United States reflected that the negative impact of hurricanes and strikes dissipated, but the number of new jobs in the first two months was revised up and the unemployment rate rose, which made the market worry about weak employment. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in December. It is expected that the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in December will rise from 67% before the report was released to 85%, and now it has risen to 86%. However, China's central bank once again increased its holdings of gold by nearly 5 tons after half a year in November, indicating that the logic and willingness of global central banks to increase their holdings of gold are still there in the current geopolitical turmoil. The expected warming of interest rate cuts, the central bank's continued increase in gold holdings, and the recent short-term martial law in South Korea and the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine are expected to jointly support the price of gold.Zheshang Securities: A-shares may benefit from the rising style of risk appetite, which is more inclined to small-cap growth. Zheshang Securities Research Report pointed out that the current inflation level is in the early stage of bottoming out, and there is a lot of flexibility for the recovery of effective demand. It is expected that monetary policy will still have a total easing space such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. In terms of large-scale assets, A-shares may benefit from rising risk appetite, and their styles are more inclined to small-cap growth, and the valuation of technology stocks may be relatively flexible. It is recommended to pay attention to high-elastic sectors such as GEM, Kechuang 50 and Beizheng 50. In the field of fixed income, the current risk-free interest rate level has gradually approached the new equilibrium level. It is expected that the yield of the next 10-year government bonds will generally fluctuate, and the long-term interest rate is less likely to have upward risks. The credit spread is expected to narrow, and the urban investment bonds in the qualified areas will sink in a short period of time or the main allocation direction.CITIC Securities: Scientific and Technological Progress+Policy Expectation The Internet sector is both offensive and defensive. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting on December 9, 2024 pointed out that a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented next year, and consumption should be greatly boosted, investment efficiency should be improved, and domestic demand should be expanded in all directions. We believe that the valuation of the Internet sector has reflected the current conservative expectations, and the strong shareholder returns provide sufficient margin of safety, while the performance of the sector is expected to benefit significantly from the macro improvement, which will bring about a double-click on performance and valuation, with emphasis on recommending pro-cyclical sectors, such as e-commerce, local life, travel, freight, online recruitment, real estate service platforms, etc. Content-based companies focus on the pace of quality content supply and valuation improvement. In the long run, Internet companies lead domestic technological innovation, and artificial intelligence and autonomous driving are expected to contribute to the increase. We suggest focusing on leading Internet companies with pro-cyclical, stable competitive advantage, low valuation and stable shareholder returns.
Galaxy Securities: Looking ahead, A-shares are expected to fluctuate upward. china galaxy Securities said that since September 24th, domestic policies have been intensively introduced. The convening of the Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party on December 9 pointed out the important direction for economic work in 2025, and at the same time released a more positive and promising policy signal, and then focused on the statement of the Central Economic Work Conference. With the accelerated implementation of the stock policy and the introduction of a package of incremental policies, the economic fundamentals are expected to show a gradual improvement trend. The policy expectation of "stabilizing the property market and stock market" will help boost investors' confidence and protect the long-term healthy development of the A-share market. Looking forward to the market outlook, A shares are expected to fluctuate upwards.The overall scale of bonus ETF exceeds 71.1 billion yuan, leading the products to exceed 20 billion yuan. As the largest dividend ETF at present, on December 6, the scale of Huatai Bairui bonus ETF rose to 20.121 billion yuan, becoming the first dividend ETF to exceed 20 billion yuan. According to the data, the product takes the dividend index of Shanghai Stock Exchange as the benchmark for performance comparison and adopts the investment strategy of complete replication method. As of December 9, the product had a floating profit of 18.21% during the year. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, as of December 9, 13 bonus ETFs have been newly established this year (excluding QDII funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect and other overseas products). On the whole, there are 37 bonus ETF products with a market size of 71.185 billion yuan. In the current market environment, dividend investment strategy has strong appeal. (Securities Daily)FTSE China A50 index futures rose 0.75% at the beginning, and closed up 0.84% in the last trading day and night.
Japan Fanuc shares rose nearly 4%.The introduction of detailed measures for the supervision of centralized drug consumables emphasizes the priority of using the selected products. Recently, the Notice of the National Health and Health Committee of the National Medical Insurance Bureau on Improving the Working Mechanism of Centralized Drug Purchasing and Implementation put forward detailed measures to strengthen the supervision of the admission, use, monitoring and assessment of centralized drug consumables. The local authorities are required to conduct investigations from the third month after centralized procurement, and urge medical institutions to give priority to the use of selected products and rationally manage the use of non-selected drugs. Emphasis is placed on the dynamic monitoring of the online price and purchase volume of centralized varieties, and institutions that fail to complete the agreed purchase volume will be regarded as unqualified. It is required to improve the provincial consultation mechanism for centralized procurement, ensure stable supply, and at the same time promote comprehensive supervision in coordination, curb unhealthy practices, and promote the priority use of selected drugs and consumables. (Official WeChat official account of the National Medical Insurance Bureau)The yield of major inter-bank interest rate bonds continued to decline, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 11" fell by 0.5bp and hit the 1.90% mark, hitting a record low.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide
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